Perspective

A. T. M. Syful Islam

Agriculture plays a key role in Bangladesh by contributing 24 percent to its exports, 32 percent to its GDP and employing more than 60 percent of its labor force. The dominance of agriculture will continue well into the 21st century as the nation fights against poverty and strives to raise standard of living of its people through sustained economic growth.

Bangladesh is the 7th largest country in the world in population where 164.707 million people are virtually elbowing each other in a land that is 147,570 sq km in area with a population density of more than 1100 people per sq km. Overpopulated! Well, there are only a few city-like states – like Singapore – that would top this kind of population density. Excluding those states, Bangladesh would make it to the top of the lists in population density. What makes the situation even more horrifying for Bangladesh is that the country is poised to lose a good part of its territory for rise of sea levels because of global warming, while its very population increases at an unsustainable rate.

Year	Population (million)
1980	88.855
1985	100.532
1990	113.049
1995	126.297
2000	140.767
2005	153.122
2009	164.707
Projected, 2025	190.000
Projected, 2050	231.000

Source: International Monetary Fund – 2009 World Economic Outlook

Food production and population growth in Bangladesh:

In Bangladesh, a country currently experiencing rapid population growth and serious food shortages, an effort to increase crop yields through the introduction of HYV (high yield varieties) of rice was initiated in 1966. As of 1979, 15% of the rice fields were planted with HYV rice, and the remaining rice fields were planted with lower yield, traditional varieties. An investigation was undertaken to determine if the increase in crop yields expected from the introduction of HYV rice would sufficiently offset expected population increases and create a balance between food supply and demand in the future. Time series analysis were used to project crop yields for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000 for each district of the country, if 15% of the land was planted in HYV rice and if 20% of the land was planted in HYV rice. Population projections were used to calculate per capita food requirements for each district for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000. Projected crop yields and per capita food requirements were then plotted on maps to determine the relationship between food supply and demand in each district. Even under the most favorable projection, in which 20% of the rice fields were planted in HYV rice, food deficient areas were more extensive than at the present time. These findings suggested that even a massive agricultural effort cannot solve the food problems of Bangladesh; however, if agricultural progress is combined with a rapid reduction in the population growth rate, the country can solve its food problem and also develop a viable economy.

In overpopulated Bangladesh, people virtually elbow each other in a land spanning 147,570 square kilometers with a population density of more than 1,100 people per square kilometer. While landmass is being lost to rising sea levels due to rains and floods, blamed on global warming, the population continues to increase at an unsustainable rate. In 1971, when Bangladesh attained independence, its population was about 75 million. Since then it has doubled. The current growth rate varies from 1.5 percent to 2 percent a year according to different assessments. Considering an annual average growth rate of 1.75 percent a year, Bangladesh’s population will double in the next 40 years; at the lowest growth rate it will double in 47 years. This is like the current U.S. population of 300 million living within the confines of the state of Wisconsin, which is close to the size of Bangladesh. Despite such an ominous scenario, optimists point out that Bangladesh is improving in education and healthcare and has achieved a respectable economic growth rate of about 5 percent annually in recent decades. However, progress has had very little effect on overall poverty levels in the country. In fact, studies have revealed that poverty levels have risen and not decreased.

In recent times, small shifts in weather patterns have intensified flooding, causing more deaths and rendering millions homeless. When coastal areas begin to submerge under water, people have no alternative but to migrate to higher land. This process of migration to higher ground has already begun and will intensify as coastal areas are increasingly flooded. The pressure is on Dhaka, the capital city, as more people cram into this already overcrowded city each day. Living conditions in Dhaka are in a continuous state of deterioration. People lack basic amenities like electricity and clean drinking water. Other cities fare no better and encroachment on government land even in rural areas is a common sight. This is likely to result in people migrating to neighboring India.

Climate change is likely to affect and impact the world’s food supply. Scientists predict that world harvests will drop 20 to 40 percent by the end of this century as a result of global warming. So the crucial issue is whether Bangladesh can meet its food requirements, given the anticipated massive food shortage, its growing population and the loss of farmland when world food supplies decline. Some experts have advocated the concept of “compact townships” to avoid the congestion of people in major cities and limit the pressure on farmland. Others, however, believe that the country is growing by about 20 square kilometers annually. Dismissing the idea of land growth, Atiq Rahman, a member of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said, “The rate at which sediment is deposited and new land is created is much slower than the rate at which climate change and sea level rises are taking place.” Thousands of non-governmental organizations are currently operating in Bangladesh and influencing the lives of many poor people. By taking a unified stand and educating the public on family planning, NGOs can contribute more in advancing the cause of humanity. Expatriate Bangladeshis are also morally obligated to come forward to help meet this great challenge in their own innovative ways.

Population and food challenge of Bangladesh in the 21st century

Rice is the staple food of about 135 million people of Bangladesh. It provides nearly 48% of rural employment, about two-third of total calorie supply and about one-half of the total protein intakes of an average person in the country. Rice sector contributes one-half of the agricultural GDP and one-sixth of the national income in Bangladesh.

Almost all of the 13 million farm families of the country grow rice. Rice is grown on about 10.5 million hectares which has remained almost stable over the past three decades.

About 75% of the total cropped area and over 80% of the total irrigated area is planted to rice. Thus, rice plays a vital role in the livelihood of the people of Bangladesh. Total rice production in Bangladesh was about 10.59 million tons in the year 1971 when the country’s population was only about 70.88 millions. However, the country is now producing about 25.0 million tons to feed her 135 million people. This indicates that the growth of rice production was much faster than the growth of population. This increased rice production has been possible largely due to the adoption of modern rice varieties on around 66% of the rice land which contributes to about 73% of the country’s total rice production.

However, there is no reason to be complacent. The population of Bangladesh is still growing by two million every year and may increase by another 30 millions over the next 20 years. Thus, Bangladesh will require about 27.26 million tons of rice for the year 2020. During this time total rice area will also shrink to 10.28 million hectares. Rice yield therefore, needs to be increased from the present 2.74 to 3.74 t/ha.

To combat the future situation we will need to consider:

• Replacement of local varieties by modern varieties in T. aman season where possible.
• Limited increase in modern variety boro area.
• Replacement of the present varieties by superior inbred, hybrid and super high yielding varieties.
• Increment of irrigation areas in both boro and T. aman season.
• Application of superior resource management technologies.
• The use of quality seeds.
• Mechanization of rice cultivation particularly minimization of post harvest losses.

Economic challenge of agriculture in Bangladesh
Agriculture in Bangladesh was once mainly subsistence based. This is no longer true. Recent estimates suggest that a proportion of farm produce is marketed (Table 1). While post-harvest distress sales still exist, recent farm level studies indicate that such incidents are only marginal in explaining the extent to which is currently practiced.

Table 1: Proportions of Agricultural Output Marketed by Farm Households,
(Household Expenditure Survey)

Crop	Percentage Marketed	Crop	Percentage Marketed
Paddy	38.7	Wheat	51.3
Jute	84.1	Mustard	62.9
Sesame	76.3	Pulses	50.3
Potato	60.4	Minor cereals	76.8
Egg Plant (Brinjal)	64.3	Arum	61.6
Pumpkin	35.2	Other vegetables	41.5
Source: Mahmud, SH Rahman and S Zohir, Agricultural Growth through Crop Diversification in Bangladesh, IFPRI_BIDS Agricultural Diversification Study

There are many types of farm produce, and most require a minimum of sorting or processing prior to home consumption or marketing. However, the degree of processing involved varies across commodity groups and by the target markets.

Fruit and Vegetables
Merchandising of Fresh Fruits, Vegetables and Potatoes

Most of the local production of vegetables and fruits is directed to the domestic market. Only in the 1980s the prospects of developing export markets emerged. Most of the country’s exports are to the United Kingdom and United Arab Emirates and targeted to Bangladeshis residing in these countries. Domestically, the urban markets are the main consumers.

Production especially that of fruits, was also adversely affected by the floods.
Improved financial services are necessary to facilitate increased export of agricultural produce from Bangladesh.

In cases of both domestic and export marketing, produce is generally packed at the farm level in bamboo baskets of 10-30 kg each or in jute bags of 30-50 kg. Lack of modern marketing infrastructure, 20-40 percent of harvested produce often does not reach the consumers. Water transport is primary means of carrying the produce to urban markets. However, with development of road transportation system, more and more of the produce are being transported by trucks and vans.

In case of exports, produce is delivered to the exporters’ “warehouse” or “packing house”, which in many cases is a small room in a housing unit. Under the supervision of exporter’s agents, the produces are sorted, graded and packed. These fresh vegetables and fruits are exported by air cargo.

Bangladesh are generally considered to be self-sufficient in potato production. However, the production instability induced by unexpected weather changes causes periodical scarcity and surplus. This alters trade potentials. Some potato exports were recorded in second half of the 1980s; however, prospects of potato production in the near future are expected to depend exclusively on the domestic market. The Agrobased Industries and Technology Development Project (ATDP) of the Ministry of Agriculture motivated entrepreneurs to export potato on a commercial basis. In 1999, 126,000 kg of potatoes were exported to Sri Lanka, Singapore and Malaysia on a commercial basis. In 2000 another 156,000 kg of potatoes were exported to Singapore.

Table: Export of Vegetables and Fruits

Year	Quantity exported (MT)
1981-82	920
1984-85	2,590
1989-90	5,330
1994-95	8,270
1998-99	13,120

Source: Export Promotion Bureau

From the graphical presentation we see that, exported quantity of vegetables and fruits are increasing day by day.

Among prospective horticultural products, cut flowers (rajani gandha) and mushrooms, two non-traditional items, need special mentioning. The market for cut flowers is growing rapidly in urban areas, and this has induced large-scale production of cut flowers in areas around Dhaka. Scientific mushroom production in Bangladesh started in the late 1970s after the arrival of the volunteers from Japan Overseas Co-operative Volunteers. Commercial production of spawn packets of oyster mushroom was started from 1989. Over the time, production had increased from one MT in 1989/90 to five MT in 1991/92. There is active interest among local industrialists in commercially produced mushrooms with a view to processing mushrooms for export. Mushrooms do not form part of the regular diet. Currently, mushrooms produced on farms are locally marketed, mostly in hotels housing foreigners, Chinese restaurants, and markets in close vicinity to the residence of foreigners.

Marketing and Processing of Food grains and Pulses:
Rice production of to about 19 million MT in a recent year. More than 50 of total rice in Bangladesh are grown in six former districts: Mymensingh, Keshoreganj, Tangail, Rangpur, Sylhet, Dhaka, Comilla and Jessore (Table 6). Nawabganj, Dinajpur and Sherpur areas are famous for production of fine and aromatic rice that have export markets. Rice mills of various capacities have grown throughout the country.
According to one estimate, about two million MT of rice bran (at 10 percent of the weight clean rice) could be produced from about 20 million MT of clean rice in Bangladesh annually. Most of it is used as fuel for cooking purposes and/or in boilers (mixed with husks). Through slight modification in the existing engel-berg system, 200,000 MT of quality edible oil could be produced from rice bran. The rice oil could meet about 50 percent of total consumption.

Pulses
Bangladesh produces more than 0.50 million MT of pulses every year. Lentil (masur) occupies about 31 percent of all pulses grown in the country. Gram (Chola) occupies the second position with 12 percent of total production. Jessore, Faridpur, Kushtia, Pabna and Rajshahi together produce about one fourth of total production (0.164 million). These areas are also familiar for production of these pulse crops.Demand for pulses has increased with our increase in population. Bangladesh imports about 75,000 MT of pulses every year, at a huge foreign currency cost — equivalent to Tk 960 million on average. The Bangladesh Government has established a Pulses Crop Production Task Force with an objective of increasing pulse production through an integrated approach, extension and credit support.

Marketing and processing of Spices
Trading of dry chili, turmeric, coriander, ginger and other spices is exclusively in the private sector. Of late, markets for dry, ground spices have opened up in the urban areas. A source at the Department of Agricultural Marketing suggests that there are now ten enterprises engaged in processing of spices, nine of which are in Dhaka and on in Chittagong. It is however believed that there may be many more home-based processing units.

Marketing and processing of Traditional Cash Crops
Jute, sugarcane and tobacco are the traditional cash crops produce by Bangladesh farmers. Jute processing begins at the farm level where harvested jute is rotted by dipping it in water for several days prior to manually separating the fiber from the sticks. With increasing demand for land and greater incentives for fish cultivation, availability of water for such processing is limited. No new technology to separate fiber from the stalks has been made available to farmers.

Most of the country’s sugarcane is used for milling. Local sugar mills use about 30 percent, and the rest used in the local gur/molasses industry. There are 16 sugar mills in the country, all of which are in the public sector. There is apparently a huge inventory of sugar, which is difficult to dispose of, given the competition from cheaper Indian sugar. The regulations to force farmers to produce sugarcane and supply it to the public sector mills are viewed as a hindrance in making the market more competitive.
In contrast to sugar, gur/molasses production is more profitable. This is carried out in temporary premises in rural areas. The technology involves crushers there are now locally produced by the private sector. Most of the molasses is exported.

Homestead Production and Processing
There is an estimated 15 million homesteads in Bangladesh, of which two million are in urban areas. Of various crop production activities carried out in homesteads, vegetable gardening is the most prominent. About 15 percent of the homestead include vegetable gardens and a relatively greater percentage of the landless (33percent) use their homestead activities. Besides, homestead forests supply a major proportion of fruit, fuel, timber and fodder. Homestead trees meet 65-70 percent of timber and about 90 percent of the fuel wood and bamboo needs of the country.

Marketing and processing of Milk
Milk is processed on a commercial scale for production of pasteurized milk that is sold in sealed packets. There are only a few milk-processing plants in the country. Milk Vitae, Savar Dairy, Aftab Dairy and the recently established Arong milk processing plant of BRAC are a few examples of successful milk processing plants. The milk processing plants collect milk from distant areas by refrigerated vans and process milk in processing centers. There is ample scope to increase milk production in the country and simultaneously establish more processing plants.

Marketing and Processing of Shrimp
According to the World Shrimp Farming Report, Bangladesh ranked 7th in shrimp production by aquaculture: Thailand (220,000 MT), Ecuador (100,000 MT), Indonesia (80,000 MT), China (70,000 MT), Vietnam (50,000 MT) and Bangladesh (30,000 MT). The share of Bangladesh farmed shrimps constituted 4.21 percent of the total world production of farmed shrimps.

Opportunities and Constraints of Agriculture in Bangladesh of 21st century

• The opportunities and constraints prevailing in the agricultural sector of Bangladesh are as follows:
• Opportunities of Agriculture in Bangladesh:
• Agricultural sector is the single largest contributor to GDP.
• Crop production system is highly labour intensive and there is an abundance of labour in the country.
• Agriculture is the largest source of employment for skilled and unskilled labour.
• Favorable natural environment generally exists throughout the year for crop production.
• Wide range of bio-diversity exists for different crops.
• Different crops and agricultural commodities are the main sources of nutrition including protein, minerals and vitamins.
• Agricultural commodities have comparatively higher value addition than non-agricultural commodities.

Constraints of Agriculture in Bangladesh:

• Agriculture is dependent on the vagaries of nature and is risky.
• Availability of cultivable land is decreasing.
• Widespread poverty among the population engaged in agriculture.
• Lack of required capital for agricultural activities.
• Inadequacy of appropriate technology considering farmers soci-economic conditions.
• Uncertainty of fair price of agricultural commodities due to underdeveloped marketing system.
• Agricultural commodities are rapidly perishable and post harvest losses are too high.
• Limited knowledge of common people about the nutritional value of agricultural commodities including vegetables and fruits.

What can be done:

1. A serious effort should be initiated to develop alternative land use, farming systems, and food systems scenarios for the 21st century:

A clearer picture of the demands that are likely to be placed on agriculture over the next century, and of the ways in which agricultural systems might be able to meet such demands, has yet to be produced. The demands that will be placed on agriculture will also depend on the rate of growth of income, particularly in the poor countries where consumers spend a relatively large share of income growth on subsistence: food, clothing, and housing. The resources and technology that will be used to increase agricultural production by a multiple of 3-6 will depend on both the constraints on resource availability that are likely to emerge and the rate of advance in knowledge. Advances in knowledge can permit the substitution of more abundant for increasingly scarce resources and reduce the resource constraints on commodity production.

2.The capacity to monitor the agricultural sources and impacts of environmental change should be strengthened:

It is a matter of serious concern that only in the last decade and a half has it been possible to estimate the magnitude and productivity effects of soil loss. Even rudimentary data on effects of soil loss production are almost completely unavailable in most developing countries. The same point holds, with even greater force, for groundwater pollution, salinization, species loss and others. It is time to design the elements of a comprehensive agriculturally related resource monitoring system and to establish priorities for implementation. Data on the effects of environmental change on the health of individuals and communities are even less adequate. The monitoring effort should include a major focus on the effects of environmental change on human populations.

3.The design of technologies and institutions to achieve more efficient management of surface and groundwater resources will become increasingly important:

During the twenty-first century water resources will become an increasingly serious constraint on agricultural production. Agricultural production is a major source of decline in the quality of both ground and surface water. Limited access to clean and uncontaminated water supply is a major source of disease and poor health in many parts of the developing world and in the former centrally planned economies
4.The modeling of the sources and impacts of climate change must become more sophisticated:
One problem with both physical and economic modeling efforts is that they have tended to be excessively resistant to advances in micro-level knowledge in the failure to take into consideration climate change response possibilities from agricultural research, and in the response behavior of decision-making units, such as governments, agricultural producers, and consumers.

5.Research on environmentally compatible farming systems should be intensified:
In agriculture, as in the energy field, a number of technical and institutional innovations could have both economic and environmental benefits. Among the technical possibilities is the design of new “third” or “fourth” generation chemical, biorational, and biological pest management technologies. Another is the design of land-use technologies and institutes that will contribute to the reduction of erosion, salinization, and groundwater pollution.

6.Intermediate efforts should be made to reform agricultural commodity and income support policies:
In both developed and developing countries, producers’ decisions on land management, farming systems, and use of technical inputs (such as fertilizers and pesticides) are influenced by government interventions, such as, price supports and subsidies, programs to promote or limit production, and tax incentives and penalties

7.Alternative food systems win have to be developed:
A food-system perspective should become an organizing principle for improvements in the performance of existing systems and for the design of new systems. The agricultural science community should be prepared, by the second quarter of the next century, to contribute to the design of alternative food systems. Many alternatives will include the use of plants other than the grain crops that now account for a major share of world feed and food production. Some alternatives will involve radical changes in food sources.

8.A major research program on incentive compatible institutional design should be initiated:
Large-scale program of research on the design of institutions capable of implementing incentive- compatible resource management policies and programs should be initiated.

(The writer is a MS student, Bangladesh Agriculture University)