Perspective

In the past, especially during the period up to the global energy crisis in the last quarter of the 20th century, the abundance of energy was never in serious doubts. It was often thought that the economics of energy generation and supply was sufficient for decision making in energy planning, but now many other factors such as environmental impact, efficiency, availability of the energy resources have become important factors in decision making. Today, 1.6 billion people are without access to electricity. Current forecast suggests the world will see an increase in global energy consumption of over 50% by 2030, with 70% of this growth in demand expected to come from developing countries.

Thus the availability of reliable and quality energy on a long term perspective of any country now assumes the same importance as any other form of security. Today, environmental dimension of energy has to be considered with as seriousness as any other technological, economic or financial factors of the overall matrix of its demand-supply balancing of any country.Per capita availability energy and electricity in Bangladesh are one of the lowest among the developing countries. Present per capita energy and electricity are 235 KGOW and 165 KWh, respectively. According to the base and High growth Scenario the generation will be 51,000 GWh and 69,000 GWh respectively in 2015, which is more than double the present generation rate (about 25,000 GWh). According to these projections, the installed capacity will be in the 10,000 MW new installed capacity needs to be added by 2015. The current global energy economics suggests that nuclear is the cheapest and vital option for power generation. Our country needs to implement two subsequent units of nuclear power plant by 2015 and 2017 so that in the long-term it may have in place secured, reliable, dependable, fast growing, environment friendly, and sustainable supply of energy.

The country has limited energy resources. If the contribution of indigenous resources (natural gas, hydroelectricity, and coal) is maximized, then even in mid-term prospective, the country will have to import fuel to ensure demand-supply management. Taking all these into consideration, the National Energy Policy stresses upon the need to evolve and implement a sustainable, cost effective and affordable generation mix. It is to be noted that all projections indicate the total depletion of gas by 2015, which alone accounts for 87% current electricity generation.

Important information to be noted is that, all its energy resource reserves is located in the eastern zone of the country. Thus western zone has to depend on either gas or electricity imported from the west. This difference in availability of electricity between two zones has to be removed through increasing generation in the west zone. Nuclear option is thus a suitable option for that zone in particular and the country in general.

THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
According to the projections of the International Energy Agency, the total demand for commercial energy would increase from 8976MTOE in 1990to 24,835 MTOE (Million tons of oil equivalents) in 2050 in the high scenario. This means that the supply of fuel would have to be doubled over this period even if the low scenario of growth is attained. On the other hand, in the supply side, the future scenario of global resources and supply of primary energy is difficult to ascertain. Complex issues like economics of energy production, strategy of individual supplier country on resource extraction, the dynamics of the international energy market on a long term perspective and to a great extent on the global political scene are likely to have significant influences on the future supply-mix.

Technology is the other important dimension of energy development plans. The developed countries are the sources of innovations and its only natural that funding and hence R&D in this field will be more responsive to their own needs. The needs and priorities of developing countries may not be necessarily be reflected in such programs. On the other hand, demand for energy and hence the related technologies are expected to grow on a faster track in the developing world.

ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
With projections of sharply rising energy consumption and continuing global dependence on fossil fuel resources and traditional biomass fuels, environmental pollution and green house gas emission could reach severely damaging levels. By this time, the green house effect and global warming has become a major subject for discussion and the global challenge is to develop strategies that foster a sustainable energy future less dependent on fossil fuels. Before making any sustainable energy strategy, we need to consider the following issues-

• Greenhouse gas
• Depletion of natural resources
• External costs (costs related to waste management and decommissioning for fossil fuels)
• Carbon tax
• Environmental costs

STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT:
The most practical alternative to fossil fuel is nuclear energy, which can solve problems of limited fossil fuels and can limit environmental pollution and can slow the rate of increase of CO2. According to the statistics of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Energy Council, over the past 10-15 years, nuclear power plant s (NPPs) in operation have shown steadily improving performance levels and demonstrated their economic competitiveness with alternative generating sources. It is important to note that NPP now is fifty years old proven technology that contributed significantly to world energy needs. It is expected that low environmental impacts and a vast fuel resource potential will allow it to contribute substantially to meet the sustainable energy challenges.

Medium and Long-Term perspective of Nuclear Power in Developing countries: Recently, global energy and environmental pictures on many developing and developed countries of the world to think and rethink for nuclear power in their overall energy supply mix. By this time, developing countries like China and India, nuclear energy has become an inevitable energy option. Presently there are 11 and 17 NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) are operating in China and India respectively and both this countries have declared ambitious visions for Nuclear. The World Nuclear Association (WNA) report entitled “The New Economics of Nuclear Power” provides international perspective and definitive analysis of the costs of constructing and operating nuclear power plants offer the most economical way to generate base-load electricity – even without consideration of the geopolitical and environmental advantages that nuclear energy confers. The WNA’s reference and upper scenarios project an expansion of nuclear capacity to a range between 524 and 740 GWe in the next 25 years. These scenarios represent construction of 200 to 400 new reactors worldwide – some for replacement, most for new capacity mostly in developing countries.

Economic and Technological Development: The capital costs of NPP are high. But once built, nuclear power typically has lower fuel and operational cost advantage than fossil plants. In fact, most exciting nuclear power plants are quite cost competitive against most fossil power plants.

The generation of electricity from conventional sources will be more costly due to rapid depletion of resources. No long supply chain of raw materials and other inventories is required in operating a major nuclear power plant; therefore power generation from nuclear plants will be cheaper than the fossil fuels in the coming days.
Environment Friendly: Only a decade ago, the environmental lobby was noisy in opposition, however, today the world’s highest profile environmentalists speaking very clearly in favor of nuclear power. Presently, our world desperately needs the clean-energy revolution and every authoritative analysis points to the fact that humankind cannot conceivably achieve a global clean-energy revolution without a huge expansion of nuclear power-to generate electricity.

THE STATUS OF NPP IN BANGLADESH:
Bangladesh’s rate of electricity generation per capita is 165 KWhr/year, which is one of the lowest in the world. Only 42% of population can access to the use of electricity. Energy shortage has been a long-term problem and its severity has recently been intensifying.

The natural gas reserve is depleting faster than previously planned, and beyond 2011 it would be difficult to dedicate natural gas for new power plants. Availability of coal and other indigenous fuel is not significant

The Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has updated its Power system Master Plan (PSMP) of 1995 in 2005. Three expansion scenarios were developed according to three economic growth rates. The projected scenarios are shown in figure 3.
Due to limited energy resources of the country, in particular in the west zone, the preparatory activities for building of nuclear power plant (NPP) in the western zone of the country are in progress. A NPP site was identified at Rooppur, Pabna in early 1960s. The Rooppur site was identified considering the international criteria and 292 acres of land was acquired. Since then a number of feasibility studies were conducted, each of which established that the project was technically and economically feasible. The then Pakistan Government gave a formal approval for 70MW, 140 MW and 200 MW plant in 1963, 1966 and 1969, respectively. Following liberation the ECNEC has approved the 125 MW power plant in 1980. The project could not, however, be implemented due to several problems with financing as the main obstacle.

The NPP has been identified in the National Energy Policy (NEP) as an important component of the long term generation mix of the country. Considering this importance, a cabinet committee on RNPP (Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant) headed by the honorable head of the government was formed in 1992 for providing directions to expedite implementation of the project. Pre-implementation phase activities for constructing of two units of 600 MWe reactors on the Rooppur site with a time lag of two years was prepared systematically by BAEC with the support from IAEA guidelines.

BAEC (Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission) is planning to formulate a Time Bound Action Plan identifying activities for implementation of the first unit of a medium size NPP by 2015. Public acceptance and support for nuclear power is very high in Bangladesh. People are expecting nuclear energy to resolve the current serious energy shortage to survive.

BAEC has been maintaining core personnel for planning and conducting pre-implementation phase activities of the NPP. Presently, a number of professionals who have background/training in different branches of nuclear technology are directly involved in the pre-implementation phase of the NPP.

BAEC is planning that fresh professionals are to be appointed, as soon as the contract is signed and trained in operation and maintenance of the nuclear power plant. A separate design team may also be trained as the design of the plant progresses.

Since the pre-implementation stage of NPP is the project decision making stage, therefore the following two broad strings of activities to be performed during the decision making stage that address with equal earnestness and seriousness right from the inception of a nuclear power program activities.

1. Technical, economic and financial management of the nuclear power program; and
2. Safety and regulatory aspects

The following activities are planned for completion within the period 2010—

• Updating and finalizing the site safety report of medium size nuclear power plant
• Updating and finalizing of bid invitation specifications documents for medium size nuclear power plant.
• Bid floating
• Preparation of essential nuclear safety documents through identification of applicable Codes, Guides, and Standards etc.
• Completion of essential works for site/construction license
• Bid evaluation (Technical and Economic)
• Financing Plan and finalizing Project Schedule
• Negotiations and closure of contract or contracts
• Technology transfer and training

Bangladesh and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to pave the way for exchanging nuclear technology and setting up nuclear power plants in Bangladesh on 13th May, 2009.Acting Chairman of Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission Md Mosharraf Hossain and Deputy Director of Russian Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corporation NN Spasskiy signed the MoU on behalf of their countries.As per the understanding, the two countries acknowledged that the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and assurance of nuclear- and radiation-safety are important factors in ensuring social and economic development of both the states. It mentions that the two sides are interested in establishing a joint working group to define the specific joint projects facilitating implementation of Bangladesh’s plans to develop a safe and viable nuclear industry.The MoU also includes terms for cooperation in education, training, updating skills of administration, scientific and technical persons and radioactive waste management.The MoU singing is the result of a fruitful negotiation between officials of Bangladesh and Russia in early April. The main point of the MoU is building more confidence between the two nations for peaceful use of nuclear energy in Bangladesh, he added.Yafes said initially they would set up a 600-1000MW power plant at Rooppur to resolve the country’s electricity crisis. Spasskiy said neither technology nor financing would be a problem to set up nuclear power plants in Bangladesh.

The international Energy Agency projects a doubling of world electricity demand by 2030, creating the need for some 4700 GWe of new generating capacity in the next quarter century. Worldwide energy investment will be directed primarily at satisfying local base-load requirements. The developing countries those have vision  for accelerating economic growth and sustainable development needs to consider in their overall energy mix to achieve: (1) national goals of price stability and energy security; and (2) global goals of environmental preservation through reduced carbon emissions. This year is crucial and the political leaders who believe that the world will return to business as usual will have a rude rendezvous with their constituencies. We, the developing countries need to start now to build Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) based global regime for our survival.

Author: Md. Rreazul Hasan Riaz